MarketMoverHow our prices and tips have done
The racing model is graded every night on races it never saw, and the NBA model on games it never saw. Tips count once their race or game is official.
Reading the live record…
Winners from runners the model priced $2 to $8 an hour out, against what it expected.
Of the betting market's accuracy an hour out.
Graded this week, none of them seen by the model.
Racing
Thoroughbreds, harness and greyhounds.
A 1 in 4 chance wins about 1 in 4 times
Each dot is a group of runners priced alike. On the dashed line is exactly right.
Close to the market, and closer near the jump
How far the model is from the betting market at picking winners. Smaller is closer.
Every kind of tip in profit
Profit is one unit a tip, at the price posted.
| Day | Race | Tip | Book | Price | Result | Units |
|---|
The NBA
Every game, every book, the Model beside them.
The NBA model, graded on games it never saw
Each night the NBA model is fitted on older games and graded on the latest week, an hour before tip-off, market by market against the betting market. The gap is how far the Model is from the market at picking what happens: smaller is closer, and below zero the Model was closer than the market.
Games graded, none of them seen by the Model.
Markets where the Model was closer than the market.
The live Model in play, against the books' in-play prices.
| Market | Graded | Games | Gap to the market |
|---|
The live Model prices each game in play beside the books' in-play prices. In-play prices are shown, never placed online: online in-play bets are banned in Australia, so in play you bet by phone with your book.
The SGM value scanner
An hour before each NBA game the scanner builds same game multis from our model, asks every bookmaker for its own price on each, and keeps the ones paying 15% or more over the model's price. Every one it has found counts here once the game is over, one unit each at the best price it found.
Settled
Won
Return on settled, at level stakes
Price against the close: average, same bookmaker
The game page's tips
Every NBA game page carries a handful of tips written from our own numbers: a player's last 10 and 5 games and his season against tonight's line, the two teams' last 10, their rest and the injury report. The tips standing at tip-off count here once the game is over, one unit each at the best price they stood at.
Settled
Won
Return on settled, at level stakes
The terms
- Unseen races
- Each night the racing model is fitted on older races and tested on the latest seven days.
- Unseen games
- Each night the NBA model is fitted on older games and tested on the latest week, an hour before tip-off.
- The live Model
- The NBA model's price during a game, from the score and the clock, graded on the result beside the books' in-play prices.
- Units
- One unit staked on each tip at the price posted. A win returns the price less the stake; a loss is minus one; a void is the stake back.
- Arbs
- Back at a bookmaker, lay on Betfair. Units are the margin the pair still locked when betting closed, after commission.
- In profit
- A kind of tip shows here while its units add up to more than zero. Kinds behind are named at the foot of the tips.